This was sent to me by one of the Goomba Gazette’s roving reporters P.G. I had to pass it on.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people won’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are
desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you�re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they�re telling the truth and when they�re not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency. Of the world.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
If some of these advancements or new methodidology are what people consider progress; I will take the old days anytime.
It is a known fact that improvements in technology can not be stopped. But who and what is technology benefiting when it’s after effects have so much negativity attached to society?? As far as I am concerned, many of these advancements have had more of a negative side on mankind than positive.
We are hard pressed to see many of our younger generations who know how to communicate verbally because of the cell phone and texting. Many of them can’t count to 20 without taking off their shoes. God forbid if there is a malfunction with a computer while they are making change at work.
What made this country great was the family unity and the dedicated working man. They were rough times but it was honest hard work that made this country strong and kept millions of people working. People worked – they spent money – they paid their taxes and everyone was happy.
Things were relatively simple and not complicated. Many of the new innovations we have to deal with in our daily lives takes a college course for the some of the older generation to comprehend.
In 1944 there was an 1.2 unemployment rate in the USA. This was before all of the social programs went haywire and made zombies of many of its recipients that were collecting their free-bees fraudulently. Many of their off-spring are still following the same pattern today. There is an element of people who have been raised under the welfare system for 50 years or longer. They do not know what the four letter word WORK means and are very comfortable living in their free-loaders life-style. I blame the government of this condition.
Simple question. What good is advancement in technology if it is detrimental to a good portion of the population? How many manual jobs have been eliminated because of new inventions?
As an example: In the construction field; it has become so mechanized that on some projects, 85% of the workers are replaced by automated machinery that run by laser. projects that used to take 100 men to do, now take 20.
I have a good friend in the business that told me he used to have 75 people on a particular job; with the new advancements he can do the same job faster and easier with 10 guys.
That is very good for the BIG BOYS that can afford to stay current with new technology. On the other hand it is bad for the out of work employees and for the small contractors that can not afford to compete on that level.
As far as I am concerned; in many cases the minuses out-weigh the pluses.
The one field that I really think has benefited both the industry and the consumer is medicine. The advancements it has made in healing and curing different illnesses that were not possible years ago is monumental.
The down side is, the patient no sooner get home from the hospital, they get a bill for $350,000.00 and another envelope asking for a donation. If the poor sucker dies, they send the bill to their survivors.
I used to ask my grandmother when one of her friends died, what they died from. She would shrug her shoulders and say; they were sick. Very few people knew what cancer 60 – 70 years ago. People used to die from simple illnesses because they didn’t have a cure for them. Today, the doctor writes a prescription for that same illness and in two days the person is out on the lake water skiing. That is what I consider useful/productive advancements.
One of the major concerns most people do not address or are aware of; some of the new innovative technology is turning our brains and bodies to mush.
Because of the computer, we don’t have to think as much as we did. I used to remember all of the people I knew phone numbers by heart. Now, like everyone else, my cell phone is doing my thinking for me.
I think calculators should not be permitted in class rooms. Who or what is solving the question or problem, the calculator – computer or the person. We use our brain 25% as much as we used to.
One of 100’s of examples. We don’t get the exercise we used to because technology has been revolutionized. We used to have to get up from the easy chair to change the channel on the TV. Now the ALMIGHTY clicker does it for us.
We don’t go to the shopping malls as much as we used to because everyone shops on-line. Technology has turning our bodies to mush because of the lack of exercise.
Now we have cars that park by them-self. How is parking the car, the driver or the computer in the car?
We have cars that do not require drivers. I think is a horrible idea. That has been proven many times over they are not as safe as expected. There are certain elements/conditions in this world that need the human touch and should be respected as such.
What is the moral of this story? I have no idea. I guess we just have to go with the flow and let the chips fall where they may.
By the way; I am very pissed off. My voice activated commands were not working on my computer and I had to type all of this manually. That really swelled up my goolunies!!!
One good thing. I don’t have to change that messy ribbon on my computer as often.